Portugal’s 2025 Legislative Elections: What to Expect

Portugal is gearing up for its next legislative elections, scheduled for 2025. These elections will determine the composition of the Assembly of the Republic (Assembleia da República), the country’s unicameral parliament, and subsequently, the government. Understanding the current political landscape and potential key issues is crucial to anticipating the outcome. The Socialist Party (Partido Socialista, PS), currently led by Prime Minister Luís Montenegro, recently won the elections but without an absolute majority. This leaves the PS reliant on other parties to govern, which introduces a degree of instability to the political climate. The main opposition is the Social Democratic Party (Partido Social Democrata, PSD), traditionally center-right, who also gained seats in the recent election. Other significant parties include Chega, a right-wing populist party that has seen a surge in popularity, becoming a key player in Portuguese politics; Liberal Initiative (Iniciativa Liberal, IL), a liberal party gaining traction; and the Left Bloc (Bloco de Esquerda, BE) and Unitary Democratic Coalition (Coligação Democrática Unitária, CDU), representing the left wing. Several key issues are likely to dominate the 2025 election campaign. The economy remains a central concern. Inflation, the cost of living crisis, and unemployment, particularly among younger generations, are pressing issues. Debates around economic growth, sustainable development, and wealth distribution will likely feature prominently. Healthcare is another critical area. The Portuguese National Health Service (Serviço Nacional de Saúde, SNS) has been facing challenges, including long waiting times and staffing shortages. Parties will propose different solutions, ranging from increased investment in public services to exploring alternative models involving private sector participation. Housing affordability, especially in major urban centers like Lisbon and Porto, continues to be a major problem. Rising property prices and rents have made it difficult for many citizens, especially young people, to find affordable housing. Policy proposals aimed at increasing the housing supply, regulating rents, and providing financial assistance to first-time buyers will be crucial. The issue of corruption and government transparency is also likely to play a role. Public trust in political institutions has been eroded in recent years due to various scandals. Parties will likely focus on proposals to strengthen anti-corruption measures and improve government accountability. Beyond domestic issues, Portugal’s role in the European Union and its foreign policy priorities will also be debated. Climate change and environmental sustainability will likely be high on the agenda. Discussions will focus on transitioning to a green economy, investing in renewable energy, and mitigating the impacts of climate change. The 2025 legislative elections will be a pivotal moment for Portugal, shaping the country’s political and economic trajectory for the coming years. The outcome will depend on how effectively parties address the concerns of Portuguese voters and present viable solutions to the challenges facing the nation. The unstable political situation means any one of a number of outcomes are possible. It is conceivable the PS could solidify their support and attain a majority, or the PSD could capitalize on popular dissatisfaction to form a center-right coalition. Alternatively, the election could produce another hung parliament, forcing parties to negotiate complex alliances to form a government. The role of smaller parties, particularly Chega and IL, will be crucial in determining the overall outcome.